Deloitte says EV market will reach 31.1m by 2030

Deloitte has increased its market forecasting for the rapid growth of the global electric vehicle (EV) market by an additional 10 million to reach 31.1 million by 2030.

It says total EV sales are still expected to reach 2.5 million worldwide in 2020. 

Based on a compound annual growth rate of 29%, Deloitte’s research estimates this to top 11.2 million in 2025 and 31.1 million by 2030.

At this point, says Deloitte, fully electric vehicles will account for 81% of all new EVs sold according to the research, outperforming their plug-in hybrid peers.

Deloitte’s outlook is based on analysis of industry data sets as well as public announcements made by original equipment manufacturers (OEMs). The revised figures are updated from original analysis conducted in 2018, it says.

Jamie Hamilton, Head of Electric Vehicles at Deloitte, said: “The rice premium attached to many EVs restricted some early adopters but, as the cost of EVs have converged with petrol and diesel equivalents, the pool of prospective buyers is set to increase. A wider range of new EVs, combined with a growing secondhand market, means EVs are becoming a more viable option for many.

“However, overcoming consumer concerns around driving range and perceived lack of charging infrastructure will be important factors as more drivers consider the practicalities of switching to electric.”

Additional factors driving growth include a favourable regulatory environment, be it financial incentives or emissions targets, and the development of new EV models that span both affordable and luxury ends of the market.

Deloitte identified a key factor in driving EV growth over the next 10 years as changing consumer sentiment, as many barriers to adoption gradually dissipate.

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